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New house building sector in Australia set for a recovery in 2012/2013 led by NSW
26-10-2012
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The HIA, which represents the residential building industry, is predicting an increase of 1.*5 in new starts driven by activity in New South Wales and Western Australia. It is also forecasting that renovation activity is likely to grow 1.6% this year following a 2.7% decline in 20111/2012.
‘From a starting point where new home building is back in recession and renovations activity has declined over four consecutive quarters, there needs to be some evidence by now of improved prospects on the horizon,’ said HIA chief economist, Harley Dale.
‘There is some evidence of an impending recovery, but it remains far from compelling. Nevertheless, we are still forecasting a recovery in housing starts in 2012/13. There are a range of factors that will constrain a recovery in residential construction, including an on-going process of household deleveraging, the lack of full pass through of interest rate cuts, tight credit supply, and governments failing to reduce the excessive taxation of new housing,’ he explained.
He said that a mild recovery in 2012/13 will be driven by interest rate cuts which will provide some impetus, new home incentives in a handful of states, and some focus on policy reform in New South Wales.
‘The short term recovery essentially rests with New South Wales. If it doesn’t happen there then national housing starts will fall for a seventh time in nine years,’ he added.
He pointed out that the catalyst for a widespread and sustainable recovery is policy reform to reduce the excessive and inefficient tax bill that renders new housing the second most heavily taxed sector of the Australian economy.
‘Governments of all levels can’t sit back and presume that lower interest rates alone will reignite new home building activity back to healthy levels, because they won’t,’ said Dale.
The housing starts cycle is forecast to bottom in the 2012 calendar year at a level of 136,809. That would represent a decline of 9.3% and on current evidence the risk resides with a weaker outcome.
Starts are forecast to increase by 4.5% in 2013 and 7% in 2014, reaching a level of 152,983. On a financial year basis, the forecast 1.8% increase in housing starts in 2012/13 follows a decline of 11.7% in 2011/12 where starts fell in every state and territory. Starts are forecast to increase by a further 4% in 2013/14 to a level of 147,060.
The forecast 1.6% rise in total renovations investment in 2012/13 would take activity to a value of $29.61 billion. Growth of a further 1.2% is forecast for 2013/14. That would take the value of renovations activity to a new record of $29.958 billion, just surpassing the $29.956 billion mark of 2010/11.
